Only one thing matters: Ireland v Denmark (November 18th 2019)

Ahead of tomorrows night final Group D qualifier, the preceding campaign and game itself can be paraphrased into certain quotes, phrases and equations.
18^th November 2019 < 18^th November 2009
Would it be particularly hard for tomorrow night to be as bad or worse than what happened ten years ago in Paris? In the build-up to our final Group game against Denmark, the column inches and social media channels this weekend have been dominated with our reflections on that fateful night. It wasn’t just a seminal moment in Irish soccer history, the actions of Thierry Henry consumed the country in the days, weeks and months afterwards.

Where was I? Letterkenny. I was a 2^nd year college student at the time who harboured dreams of going to the World Cup in South Africa. In the midst of a severe recession and no means to actually fund a trip of such magnitude, my 19-year-old was living in an fantasy world with such dreams. There was nothing wrong with dreaming, or believing in ourselves. And in November 2009, I firmly held the belief that Ireland were going to qualify for that World Cup. Nothing, from the playoff draw being seeded, from the criticism of Giovanni Trapattoni’s tactics or a first leg defeat at home to the French could sway me. There was no alcohol underpinning this faith either. For some reason I can’t explain, I felt that the Irish team that night were going to do something special, something that match the exploits of our previous World Cup teams. And in the first 90 minutes, they did. A magical performance that demonstrated the best of our abilities saw us take the French to extra time by virtue of Robbie Keanes first half goal. Everything I believed that would transpire before the game was coming to fruition. Heck! we had great chances to win it out right before extra time. We would rue those chances. We would rue them for some time in the aftermath of one of the great injustices in sport.

You and I have unfinished business. – The Bride (Kill Bill vol.2)
Not that we could ever forget what happened that night, fresher in the minds of Irish fans is November two years ago. November 14^th 2017 was a night I felt we would qualify for out first World Cup in 16 years. While we weren’t robbed of qualification, I nearly felt as bad in the aftermath in 2009. While I didn’t have the same surging confidence within me this time around, I felt we had a great chance all the same. After all, the familiar surroundings of the Aviva Stadium with 48’000 Irish fans at the top of their voice could be the perfect catalyst for the greatest night of our lives. Yet, despite a perfect start, our hopes and dreams unravelled before our eyes on a night where a tactical blunder was punished emphatically. Ireland’s wait for a World Cup return would have to wait another four years. The manner of defeat stuck with me for a long time afterwards. I’d built myself up to a point of emotional edge that left me crushed midway through the second half. It hasn’t helped one bit that Denmark have displayed an incredibly arrogant dismissive attitude towards us based on this result. Players, Managers and supporters alike have been dismissive of Irish football as nothing more as ancient and archaic. It didn’t help Martin O’Neill took off both of our central midfielders or put enough faith in his players to show more courage in possession that night but Denmark themselves are no world beaters themselves. We would meet again in the Nations League 12 months later, where we would play out two 0-0 draws. I watched both games from home. My life changed dramatically in the months after that 5-1 defeat. The following February, I got engaged. The following September, I became a father. The following November, after an awful scoreless draw in Aarhus, Martin O’Neill was sacked. Everything was looking up for my future. And then the best Irish manager in my living memory (circa 1996 onwards) was coming back to lead us into the next campaign.

In the years that followed Saipan, the negative opinion of Mick McCarthy slowly began to fade. A poor start to the Euro 2004 qualifying campaign was all the public and the FAI needed to convince McCarthy that it was time to move on. Looking back, it was a ludicrous decision. McCarthy had spent the last 6 and a half years putting together one of the most exciting Irish teams ever. You only have to look back on the qualifying campaign that got us to South Korea and Japan. It shouldn’t be argued that Roy Keane was phenomenal in that campaign because he absolutely was. However, this was not a one-man team. The 2^nd leg in Iran and subsequent World Cup, where after all the fallout and intense media scrutiny that followed the squad and management, we performed admirably throughout. We were desperately unlucky to go out on penalties to Spain in the last 16. Many felt at the time (and maybe still feel now) that if we avoided all the hassle with Saipan, we could have went much further with Roy involved. That debate will rage on forever but we’ll never know. What cannot be debated is that McCarthy was a fantastic manager for Ireland. Many hoped he would be again.

There was an interesting development in his appointment however. There are a number of parallels to the scenario that preceded McCarthy’s first appointment. In 1996, Jack Charlton's glorious era has come to an end after the previous campaign to qualify for the Euro 96 fell apart spectacularly. The squad is aging, the football they're playing is woeful and the team is in dire need of fresh faces. 7 of the players McCarthy gave their first cap (Shay Given, Ian Harte, Gary Breen, Kenny Cunningham, Kevin Kilbane, David Connolly, Lee Carsley) would be part of the 2002 World Cup squad. A further 10 players who earn their first caps over the next two campaigns would be in that same squad. While the Senior team has struggled since 2016, our underage squads have been getting results and praise not seen since the glory days of Brian Kerr’s tutelage. We reached the quarter finals of the U-17 European Championships two years running, with the 2018 edition seeing us knocked out on penalties to eventual champions Netherlands (in another robbery for Irish football).

A number of young players have been making huge strides across the water with Premier League clubs. Despite the best efforts of Martin O’Neill or the naysayers to say otherwise, there is talent coming through in Irish football. And our next managerial appointment would be crucial to this development. The golden generation of the late 90’s coincided with Micks first spell in charge and I felt he was best placed to bring on the new generation and build a team for the future. John Delaney felt differently. Mick’s pragmatism and ability to get results appealed to Delaney, with two home games in Euro 2020 guaranteed if we qualified. At the same time, the marvellous job Stephen Kenny had done with Dundalk in the last 6 years couldn’t be ignored. It was decided that McCarthy would take the Senior job for one campaign while Kenny would become the U-21 manager job before taking over from McCarthy. It was a unique arrangement, one that left many bemused when it was announced. However, it is probably the one decision by Delaney I won’t criticize. Throughout his career, there can be no doubt that McCarthy, despite whatever resources are available to him, got the best out of the teams he was managing. And Kenny gets two years to work with the next generation before bringing them onto the next level.

'Everyone seems a bit happier' – Mick McCarthy, March 2019
Off the field, everyone is happier now that John Delaney has finally left Irish football. On the field, what we have potentially lost by going for this approach is giving McCarthy a free shot to experiment on the same scale he did 20 years ago. Ultimately, he was and is, a pragmatic manager who gets the results by any means necessary. And while that has put us in a place to qualify, it has not been pretty on the eye (unintentional rhyming!). We have scored the grand total of 6 goals in 7 qualifying games. That includes two games against Gibraltar which we won on an aggregate score on 3-0. We did play well against Georgia in our first home qualifier but we’ve regressed since that display. In saying that however, we topped the group going into the away double header in October. And while we would only take one point from 6 away to Georgia and Switzerland, draws against Denmark and at home to the Swiss have typified our never say die resilience that resonates with teams managed by Mick McCarthy. When the Senior team’s performances have been compared with the displays from our Under 21 team, many have been quick to criticise McCarthy for being as pragmatic as he has been. However, if we score from our only shot on target and have less than 20% possession tomorrow night, who will care. McCarthy himself has said, in reference to his pragmatism, “if you win like that, nobody’s bothered”.  

Shane Duffy will captain Ireland tomorrow night in the absence of the suspended Seamus Coleman. It was an easy decision according to McCarthy. Duffy has been an ever present in the starting eleven for some time now and with two goals against Denmark already, hopes are high he can get a 3^rd in this fixture. Colemans suspension allows Matt Doherty, whose performances in the Premier League across the last 12 months have been superb, a rare opportunity to start at right back. John Egan has also impressed in the Premier League playing at the heart of Sheffield United’s defence and will partner Duffy. Enda Stevens has been an ever present when available and will start on the left. Darren Randolph has been confirmed fit to play, having been an injury scare in the build-up. Robbie Brady got a much needed 90 minutes against New Zealand last Thursday evening but he didn’t do enough in my opinion to start tomorrow. Then again, I’d think James McClean would be far more effective coming on as a sub than starting on the left. Callum Robinson picked up his first goal for Ireland against New Zealand and hopefully it is the catalyst for a good performance on the right-hand side.

Glenn Whelan will anchor the midfield for Ireland. The most vilified Irish player in the last decade and retired by Martin O’Neill this time last year, Gleniesta has shown his value time and time again doing the dirty work in the middle. What doesn’t help his case is those playing either side of him playing poorly. Both Jeff Hendrick and Conor Hourihane, with a goal each to their name in this campaign, played as bad as I’ve ever seen them play last month. If they give the ball away as easily as they did against Georgia and Switzerland, then we’re giving Denmark a platform to repeat the 5-1 result. Their recent performances have led to increased calls for Jack Byrne to get a starting berth. Byrne, once a highly touted youth prospect with Man City, has been reborn at home with Shamrock Rovers and deserves all the plaudits he gets for his form in 2019. Starting Byrne will introduce a different dynamic to McCarthy’s Ireland. However, the occasion may necessitate this change. Either way, whoever starts in midfield tomorrow night needs to produce a huge performance.

Up front, it is likely David McGoldrick will lead the line by himself. I have always enjoyed watching McGoldrick for Ireland and his frontline presence is not something to scoff at. His perseverance and effort got it’s just reward in the home fixture against Switzerland. It is unfortunate that Aaron Connolly has been ruled out through injury but Troy Parrott could be the game-changing roll of the dice we utilise in search of a winner. At 17 years of age, Parrott has developed a reputation as the next Robbie Keane. Since Keano’s retirement in 2016, we’ve sorely lacked a goalscoring threat and with Connolly and Parrott, the future bodes well for our striking options. We also have Seani Maguire, who capped a good display against New Zealand with his first goal for his country. He has struggled in his previous appearances for Ireland but his performance on Thursday is exactly what we want to see tomorrow if he enters the fray. 

 

If we were more ambitious last month, we could have already qualified for Euro 2020. However, I wanted a shot at Denmark. I wanted revenge for two years previous. And if we lose tomorrow, we'll still have a shot of qualifying through the playoffs. For all the confusion thrown up by the Nations League, the frustration of below par performances, the sense of familiarity and the possibility of the unknown, tomorrow evening will come down to one simple phrase my favourite NFL team abide by.

JUST WIN BABY!